Following the war with Iran, Trump's book will be reprinted under a new title: "The Art of the Dud Deal". After all, the "deal" he achieved is the worst deal for the USA and the rest of the world: the Iranian regime is still in power, it can still make an atomic bomb, and it now controls the Strait of Hormuz - and possibly the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
He went to war to ensure that Iran never acquired a nuclear bomb. The war ended — for now, at least — with a demonstration that Tehran possesses an arguably more powerful weapon of deterrence against future attacks, one that is cheaper to use, gives Iran enormous sway over the global economy, can bring in more revenue than its oil sales, and can’t be negotiated away: the narrow Strait of Hormuz.
For more than 2,500 years, the wealth of empires has often come down to one simple thing: control of chokepoints. In 405 BC, Sparta seized control of the Bosphorus — a critical trade gateway — and sacked Athens without throwing a spear or thrusting a sword.
In the 15th century, Denmark controlled both sides of the Øresund Strait, the narrow passage connecting the North Sea to the Baltic. Every ship carrying grain, timber, or metal between Russia, Sweden, and Amsterdam had to pass through it. King Erik of Pomerania saw the opportunity. He fortified the strait, built a customs house at Helsingør, and taxed every vessel under threat of cannon fire.
Again, after conquering Constantinople in 1453, the Ottoman Empire controlled the Bosporus for four centuries. It was the only passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The Ottomans treated the Black Sea as a private lake and barred foreign warships. Access was doled out through treaties. With each one granting limited rights to specific nations in exchange for political concessions. Early on, Venice was forced to give up territory and pay hefty fees to continue its trade. Access was never a right. It was a favour, granted on terms that served Istanbul. Even after the empire collapsed, Turkey retained control. Today, Ankara still collects transit fees. It hiked the fees fivefold in 2022, raising annual revenue from US$40 million to US$200 million.
And then there is the obvious one, the Suez Canal, an energy and trade highway that generates US$9 billion in annual revenue for Egypt. Denmark held the Øresund for 400 years. Turkey still collects on the Bosporus after 600 years. The Suez is a huge moneymaker for Egypt.
After this short lecture in history and geography, let's get back to Iran:
More than 12,000 U.S. missiles, bombs, and drones hit Iranian targets over the past five weeks, destroying the country’s navy and much of its military infrastructure. Several of Iran’s leaders and some 1,500 of its citizens were killed, including more than 170 who died in a strike on a girls’ school that was the apparent result of errant targeting. But twelve hours after Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilisation and weeks after demanding Iran’s "unconditional surrender", the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire with none of its demands met. Instead, Iran agreed only to reopen the strait, a global waterway that operated freely before the war began, in exchange for two millions dollars for each tanker that passes through it, payable in crypto currency.
Depending on the outcome of the negotiations over the next two weeks, the regime could actually be in a stronger strategic position than it was before the war. Iran may have lost every military battle, but the war appears to have ended on Tehran’s terms. What a dud deal!
