It's an old Ukrainian proverb which means, "Fire begins with sparks" (but, of course, you knew that already). And so we wait for things to get nasty after last weekend's referendum whose "Yes" vote was a foregone conclusion.
I mean, it's not very likely that a Russian mobster/bunch is going to back down to some decadent Western imperialists, is it? And a little armed conflict might be just the thing to rally the troops behind a leader or two. It's happened before, many times. Just not recently (well, unless you include Afghanistan, Iraq, or Afghanistan again).
The Russians have the vital flow of gas into Europe as their primary leverage in this power struggle, and they have shown in quarrels past that they are not afraid to turn the taps off if they feel it is in their best interests to do so. Here, in one simple map, is the crux of the struggle over Ukraine:
Russian gas enters Europe largely through Ukraine's pipelines; and, as you can see in yet another map (this time courtesy of the Wall Street Journal), most of Europe is somewhat reliant upon its continuing to do so, and some of Europe is totally dependent upon its doing so. Score so far: Russia 1, the West 0.
So what happens next? Does Putin once again run rings around the West, or is he forced to back down? Will somebody, somewhere miscalculate and overplay their hand? Is this just a flashpoint for trouble that's been brewing for a while? Is there a wider picture here that Ukraine is just a small part of?
We live in interesting times!
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