There's a cold wind blowing outside, and it's not just at "Riverbend" but also coming from Islamabad where talks between the US and Iran have ended. No Chamberlain-style "Peace in our time" waving of any sort of declaration, just 'Fini!' - but no 'Fini la guerre!' The beat(-up) will go on!
And yet, the US military said two of its warships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz and conditions were being set to clear mines, while Iran’s state media denied any US ships had transited the waterway. I guess it'll be too early for the Donald to rename it the Strait of Trump.
Even with some agreement, it wouldn't have fixed the badly damaged infrastructure, nor would the oil fields have miraculously produced oil again. Then there’s the acute shortage of refined products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and don’t even get me started on those fertilisers.
So what will the market do tomorrow morning? The market had been "overhedged for chaos" for some time and therefore unable to crash, and it's unlikely to change - unless the missiles start raining down again.
EBITDA? I guess it all comes down to the anthropic part of the equation.
