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Today's quote:

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Shares are not like bananas - we usually don't buy more when they are cheaper


Many people - myself included - are annoyed they missed the low of 23 March, and are thinking "Just give me another chance to invest at 30% less." But this is more a reaction to knowing the market has risen.

If it actually fell heavily again, the majority of people would do nothing as it always looks as if the market will fall further. Shares are not like bananas - we usually don't buy more when they are cheaper.

The recovery from the 23 March low resulted in the biggest three-day gain in more than eighty years, which built into a rise of 45% by 8 June. In fact, Wall Street closed its best quarter since 1987.

How do you make sense of what is happening? The previous greed is replaced by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) but, while the fundamental outlook may be positive on balance, with listed security prices being where they are, I am not convinced the odds are in an investor's favour.

Having missed the signs - if indeed there were any - before the big downturn, I said to myself, "Don’t panic. The time to sell is before the crash, not after", and waited for the second mild recovery before going fully into cash just before the end-of-the-financial-year on 30 June.

Extreme highs and lows will always be the eventual result in cycles, not the exception, and I shall wait for the next low before buying back in.

As a good friend opined, "We just have to wait for another 'Trumpism' to flatten the market, and that is more certain than death and taxes. So stay positive and alert to Donald's next damaging groundless platitude."

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