In retrospect, I just wished I had been the guy on the other side of the trade because, as BHP climbed up to $50 and beyond, I had been the guy who bought from the other guy who sold, always thinking it might go higher, which it did until it reached $50.84.
Then, when it turned, first down to $49, then $47, then $46, I thought every time the opposite: that it couldn't possibly fall much further; that it would go back up again; that it would at least stabilise at its present low level; and so I never sold. When reality finally hit, it was too late to sell and I started to wait - like Vladimir and Estragon waiting for Godot.
I have been sitting it out and waiting all last week and this week while BHP dropped further, from $44.92 to $44.63 to $43.86 to $42.82, a drop of $8, or almost 16%, from its high of $50.84 on 28 December 2023.(BHP's price tracks the iron ore price which dropped US$22.45, or 16.57%, in the last 3 months.)
That's a drop of $800 on a hundred shares, $8,000 on a thousand shares, $80,000 on ten thousand shares, $800,000 on a hundred thousand shares, $1,600,000 on ... anyway, you get the idea, don't you?
As I said, I now wished I'd been the guy on the other side of the trade.
P.S. According to analytical forecasts, the price of BHP may reach $50.29 (again) by the end of 2024, and it is expected to be $79.22 by the end of 2029, so in the long run ... however, as John Maynard Keynes observed in 1923, "but this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead." I'll get back to you in 2029 if I'm not dead yet.
